[Transforming Singapore]
Was the case of the recent Malaysian elections one of transformation or transplacement? Huntington writes that it is difficult to draw a clear line between the two. It was likely that PM Abdullah still wanted to have a majority share in Parliament. Although he allowed a longer campaigning period, that could have been a hint to open up thus leading to transformation. It could have been transplacement if there were covert interactions as the oppostion became stronger. To fully pinpoint what it was would require insider information.

Now for the Singapore context.

Transformation in Singapore can happen but this will not happen overnight. It would take years for our opposition parties to build up before the government would find the opposition in Singapore a threat. They may be worried about the role of the online media during the Malaysian elections and that it may happen to Singapore. But largely, the opposition parties are not united in fighting the incumbent (especially the more radical party). Although at the last elections, the ruling party's support declined, the majority of the seats still belong to the ruling party.

How can this change? There are two possibilities - when citizens realise the need to be a full democracy (or ideal democracy - high contestation and high participation) and when leaders with democratic ideals come into power. For the latter, this influence would be diffused thus causing the loosening up of the government. Simultaneously, the opposition parties build on their strengths by having more credible and rational members. Add to that, the relaxation of control over state media will further complement this change thus allowing more transparency.

Replacement in Singapore is very unlikely to happen. State-police and state-military are very unlikely to overthrow the powers-to-be in Singapore (they are all the king's men). Moveover, with assembly acts that prohibit even the gathering of more than four people, this rules out the possibility of having mass demonstrations. Students who demonstrated in public places in Singapore (i.e. their schools and indoors) against the military junta in Myanmar had little impact and caused little change. These actions are not strong enough to really bring about replacement in Singapore.

The death of a leader in Singapore would also not have any impact on the government and future developments of the party. The ruling party's ideals are self-running and even the death of the ruling party's founder would not shake the foundations of a party that was not built overnight.

Transplacement in Singapore is quite unlikely but not to be ruled out. If the opposition parties in Singapore build up and they win considerable landslide votes, they will have a strong representation in Parliament. When threatened, the ruling party may opt to have thorough negotiations with the opposition to further allow transplacement thus propelling Singapore to a full democracy. Unrest and violence (which happened during the transplacement in South Africa) against the Singapore government can be highly ruled out.

So it seems clear that the only way is for a transformation to occur. Whether it would will be based on a confluence of factors.

The next general election would be the first step. It'll probably take more than three elections to see Singapore transform into a full democracy. But that begs the question. Do Singaporeans want a full democracy? Or are they content with the Singapore model of governance?